jueves, 23 de mayo de 2013

to anticipate the future, we must know our past


PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

The world of finance and financial markets has a bittersweet taste. Above all in the market in which I operate here we are not investors... Are "speculators" in the noble sense of the word. So we understand it well I will explain an example:


  1. Buyer's actions: add to our portfolio shares of American Express, which is listed on the North American index "dow jones" day 18/04/2013. day 10/05/2013 we sell and get a return of 9.15%.
  2. Buyer of financial products: we add to our portfolio of bullish options American Express on the same date selling again in identical date. We get a return of 116% minus commissions.
The comparison is "amazing" but the risk is different. With the actions the profitability/loss is subjected to the movement of the quote. But with financial products risk factors are aligned at the time of completion of the contract and several terms. The most important for me are "delta and elasticity". If we still had American Express product the price of our speculation fall just as fast in a few days if kept in the same price or down a little. Therefore, we should leave as soon as the price stops altogether with whatever quote. The notice is very fast since it can last from a few hours to three days.

Before opening a position must outline in point to enter, at that point will leave with benefit and at that point skip to stop leak. We should seek companies with much upward or downward volatility. This aspect is very important since it will allow us to extend gains in the chosen section. Another essential aspect is the living always open and constantly on the move in search for new products that open us the door to more international markets. There is always a stagnant markets and markets that are in an explosive moment that must take advantage on our side.

But this is part of the present and the future. To carry out any work or undertaking we should analyze the current situation of the sector to work and that it has passed in recent years in the same. It is the Trump to see mistakes and achievements have been committed to not tripping over the same stone over and over again.

There are many famous characters from history in the family of speculators. The first speculator can be found in the Bible: Joseph of Egypt, which was devoted to speculation truly risky or even dangerous. He was Minister of Finance of the Pharaoh and was able to get visions of the dreams of their Lord, with the seven fat cows and seven lean time.

During the seven years of abundance, he decided to store large quantities of cereals which, later, during the seven years of shortage put back in the market at a much higher price.

In ancient Rome, financial center of the Mediterranean area, flourished speculation. speculated to the wholesale grain and other goods. The political passion of caton, was increasing the possibility of the destruction of Carthage. This was considered the breadbasket of the world, and when the soldiers of general Scipio entered, they looted the warehouses and silos. About Roma dropped tons and tons of grain in addition to home-grown. At the beginning, prices fell gradually to end finally collapsing. Thus, many speculators lost their fortunes.
In Rome there was a forum in which wealthy citizens gathered to perform their transactions, which was in the vicinity of the Temple of Janus. It was there, where Cicero, the most prominent lawyers of his time, looking for clues or rumors that help their speculations about land, coins and various goods.


After a time, Cicero managed to gather a considerable fortune. He already said at that time that the money was the nervous system of the Republic, and was fully convinced that the speculation was the engine of capital formation. Daily met in the Forum with outstanding financial and traders of step. He speculated with land and farms, as well as construction projects and the granting of tax collections. As Senator he was able to get reports from first-hand about urban projects, which was of great help in their speculations. This situation sounds like something that happens today with several current Governments.

Also sir Isaac Newton, the immortal discoverer of the laws of gravity, tried to speculation market, albeit without success, to such an extent that he ended up banning the word bag from ruling in his presence.

Voltaire spent hours talking to his lover about actions, values and money... Speculated with land and grain, but it achieved more fame currency smuggler. During the war of succession, a bank that would finance military operations with the issuance of paper money was founded in Saxony. After the war, those tickets lost 40% of its value. However, the great federico demanded to withdraw, by paying 100% of their value in taleros of silver, all the Bills that were in the hands of the Prussians. That's where entered Voltaire did buy those tickets in Dresden and introduced them in Prussia of contraband in his suitcase. There, through straw men it required its change in coins to the Government of Dresden.

Beaumarchais, Casanova, and Balzac were serious problems. Balzac needed large sums of money to maintain their lifestyle, so he wrote novels, short stories, essays, and everything that could make you money. But as that wasn't enough, it resorted to stock market speculation, frequently attending visit the baron de Rothschild to try to get some confidence or Council.

And as not... lord Keynes, the most important specialists in political economy of our century. the British Government put this entry in her official portrait:

"Lord John Maynard Keynes, the man who managed to create a fortune without working"


In conclusion, these men were able to put your grain of sand to form part of the history of each of their times change and develop a financial system that has been collecting the work of each of its components. Soon we will see more articles on stock historical events which gave much to talk about. but keep in mind that if we do not understand our past not we reach the future.

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